Welcome back to my blog (for anyone actually reading it)!
I left you all on the 24th July feeling fairly deflated after a run of losses that left my 'Blog Bank' at -£130.44 for £10 stakes, or 13 points, or 1300%.
In my short time trading (10 months) I have noticed a common theme of jumping continuously between systems, usually dropping them when they don't work and starting/trying something new that is bound to be the new holy grail. In the previous few weeks with my blog in a losing position I had a fairly small number of systems on the go.
Some were doing ok (2.5) and some had potential but needed more time (CS). My main issue it seemed was working on the basis of risking 1 point (100%) for perhaps a 70% profit. It doesn't take a genius to work out that isn't really sustainable with out incredible strike rate.
I left for my 3 weeks holiday with some optimism for the CS (Correct Score) market trading which can yield big profits if utilised correctly.
I aimed to use the holiday time to really reflect on my life, my trading and where I wanted it all to go in the next few years. This really is serious business to me. Caan loaded up a pic on FB earlier saying:
"Success in life comes when you simply refuse to give up, with goals so strong that obstacles, failure, and loss only act as motivation"
I read a couple of books whilst relaxing on the beach, notably 'Think and Grow Rich'. I'm not sure I took too much from it but maybe I did subconsciously.
I decided to dabble in some trades in my 'free time' e.g. whilst lazing on the beach with some decent signal or whilst the missus (she hates that term) was showering before heading out for the evening. This left me with fairly small windows to check out the market, see if anything took my fancy and if anything had potential.
I started entering the CS market at both half time and pre-match and started doing very well indeed. I haven't really looked back since.
What has changed?
Structure
Even with 5-6 systems previously (used to have 10+), trading can become quite stressful and you can really run yourself down on the busy days trying to capture all opportunities and avoid that feeling of 'missing' out on a great profitable game.
Whilst on holiday and since my return, I have used 2 systems. No more.
I have very strict criteria for trades I will enter. Anything else I have zero interest in at this moment in time. Call that discipline I guess. I am happy to branch out in the future as I have previously, but I need to develop my bread and butter trading and build my bank up to a decent standard.
Planning
Nothing too complex. I use Futbol24 app on my phone. Each morning I look at the entire days fixtures, knowing which will be in play on Betfair and which will have sufficient liquidity (100x Stake). I then 'favourite' teams playing in Leagues I have a good working knowledge of. This moves them into a separate section. I do the research I need on those I'm entering pre-match (20 mins effort) and then wait. If something happens during the matches that mean I'm no longer interested, I just unfave them and they're out of my mind forever.
Staking
I'm working at a rough 5% stake of bank, with a max 300% liability so more realistically 15% of bank. This will change now as I take more caution. Did not deviate from this at all and waited until the next £100 mark was met before moving on.
Mindset
As mentioned this is serious business to me. I am practically reliant on it to fulfil my short-mid term goals of getting engaged, married and quitting my job! Not too much eh! I told Pete earlier I will have to die before I fail to make it at this game. You won't find a more determined son of a bitch, believe me. I will not make mistakes lightly (although I have made some the last month of course, we all do).
Results?
This is not some sort of bullshit success story, I'm still an amateur in this game for sure, but I've seen a real turnaround this month, enough to give me real encouragement that I can achieve my goals. I am calm, clear minded, I know exactly what I need to do and how to do it. Only I alone can fuck this up over the long term.
Results in a dodgy download from Betfair. The yellow items highlighted are those I identified as clear mistakes I made which I hope to learn from and eradicate.
25th July - 20th August: £507.27
Blog Total: £376.83
I would say a long term aim would be 20-30 points a month, so really chuffed with the blog progress, now approx 1 month in. Will stop rambling now, been a long ass day. A quick thanks to Pete for keeping me on track!
| Market | Start time | Profit/loss (GBP) | Stake | % |
| Football / Norwich v Blackburn : Correct Score | 19-Aug-14 19:45 | £131.05 | £20 | 655% |
| Football / Norwich v Blackburn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 19-Aug-14 19:45 | -£9.60 | £20 | -48% |
| Football / Paide Linnameeskond v Nomme Kalju : Correct Score | 19-Aug-14 17:00 | £94.15 | £20 | 471% |
| Football / Breidablik v Fram : Correct Score | 18-Aug-14 20:15 | £48.25 | £20 | 241% |
| Football / St Patricks v Limerick : Correct Score | 18-Aug-14 19:45 | £0.00 | £20 | 0% |
| Football / Vikingur Reykjavik v IBV : Correct Score | 18-Aug-14 19:00 | £0.05 | £20 | 0% |
| Football / Kuban Krasnodar v Amkar : Correct Score | 18-Aug-14 18:00 | £0.00 | £20 | 0% |
| Football / Syrianska FC v Landskrona : Correct Score | 18-Aug-14 18:00 | -£60.05 | £20 | -300% |
| Football / Syrianska FC v Landskrona : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 18-Aug-14 18:00 | -£18.56 | £20 | -93% |
| Football / Bodo Glimt v Sandnes Ulf : Correct Score | 17-Aug-14 17:00 | £0.00 | £20 | 0% |
| Football / Sundsvall v Osters : Correct Score | 17-Aug-14 17:20 | -£17.79 | £20 | -89% |
| Football / Sundsvall v Osters : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 17-Aug-14 17:20 | £42.91 | £20 | 215% |
| Football / Utrecht v Willem II : Correct Score | 17-Aug-14 13:30 | £25.03 | £20 | 125% |
| Football / Sendai v Shimizu : Correct Score | 16-Aug-14 11:00 | £22.32 | £15 | 149% |
| Football / Sendai v Shimizu : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 16-Aug-14 11:00 | £16.13 | £15 | 108% |
| Football / AC Sparta Praha U19 v FK Pardubice U19 : Correct Score | 16-Aug-14 10:00 | £38.33 | £15 | 256% |
| Football / Start v Stromsgodset : Correct Score | 15-Aug-14 18:00 | £29.04 | £15 | 194% |
| Football / Start v Stromsgodset : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 15-Aug-14 18:00 | £42.84 | £15 | 286% |
| Football / Eastleigh v Aldershot : Correct Score | 14-Aug-14 19:45 | £0.00 | £15 | 0% |
| Football / FC Basel v St Gallen : Correct Score | 14-Aug-14 19:00 | -£46.08 | £15 | -307% |
| Football / Odd v Brann : Correct Score | 14-Aug-14 19:00 | £18.43 | £15 | 123% |
| Football / HB Koge v AGF : Correct Score | 14-Aug-14 18:00 | -£45.08 | £15 | -301% |
| Football / Kalmar FF v Falkenbergs : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 14-Aug-14 18:00 | -£7.65 | £15 | -51% |
| Football / Kalmar FF v Falkenbergs : Correct Score | 14-Aug-14 18:00 | £24.01 | £15 | 160% |
| Football / Kalmar FF v Falkenbergs : Correct Score 2 Home | 14-Aug-14 18:00 | -£1.50 | £15 | -10% |
| Football / AIK v Djurgardens : Correct Score | 13-Aug-14 18:05 | £7.53 | £15 | 50% |
| Football / Brommapojkarna v Gefle : Correct Score | 13-Aug-14 18:00 | £18.28 | £15 | 122% |
| Football / Brommapojkarna v Gefle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 13-Aug-14 18:00 | -£8.55 | £15 | -57% |
| Football / Rotherham v Fleetwood Town : Correct Score | 12-Aug-14 19:45 | -£52.75 | £15 | -352% |
| Football / Benfica v Rio Ave : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 20:45 | -£44.80 | £15 | -299% |
| Football / IBV v Hafnarfjordur : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 10-Aug-14 18:00 | -£12.60 | £15 | -84% |
| Football / IBV v Hafnarfjordur : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 18:00 | £6.66 | £15 | 44% |
| Football / Dnipro v Karpaty : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 17:30 | £17.23 | £15 | 115% |
| Football / Sogndal v Bodo Glimt : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 17:00 | £0.00 | £15 | 0% |
| Football / AIK v Gefle : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 16:30 | £55.82 | £15 | 372% |
| Football / AIK v Gefle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 10-Aug-14 16:30 | -£9.45 | £15 | -63% |
| Football / IFK Mariehamn v Honka : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 16:30 | £8.08 | £15 | 54% |
| Football / MFK Kosice v Slovan Bratislava : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 15:30 | £28.53 | £15 | 190% |
| Football / Sparta Rotterdam v Den Bosch : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 13:30 | £0.00 | £15 | 0% |
| Football / Sligo Rovers v Athlone : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 19:45 | £42.79 | £15 | 285% |
| Football / Longford v Finn Harps : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 19:30 | -£44.64 | £15 | -298% |
| Football / SCR Altach v Wolfsberger AC : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 18:00 | £14.26 | £15 | 95% |
| Football / Atvidabergs v Kalmar FF : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 15:00 | £89.39 | £15 | 596% |
| Football / Atvidabergs v Kalmar FF : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 09-Aug-14 15:00 | -£6.75 | £15 | -45% |
| Football / Nottm Forest v Blackpool : Match Odds | 09-Aug-14 15:00 | £0.06 | £15 | 0% |
| Football / FC Inter v SJK : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 14:00 | £45.46 | £15 | 303% |
| Football / Cottbus v Rot-Weiss Erfurt : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 13:00 | -£44.00 | £15 | -293% |
| Football / Nagoya v Kashima : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 11:00 | £7.76 | £15 | 52% |
| Football / Nagoya v Kashima : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 09-Aug-14 11:00 | £15.66 | £15 | 104% |
| Football / FK Suduva v Trakai : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 10:00 | -£43.45 | £15 | -290% |
| Football / Icasa v America MG : Correct Score | 08-Aug-14 23:30 | £12.79 | £15 | 85% |
| Football / KSV Superfund v SV Horn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 08-Aug-14 17:30 | -£10.80 | £15 | -72% |
| Football / KSV Superfund v SV Horn : Correct Score | 08-Aug-14 17:30 | -£46.50 | £15 | -310% |
| Football / Sirius v Degerfors : Correct Score | 08-Aug-14 17:20 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / AIK v FC Astana : Correct Score | 07-Aug-14 18:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Molde v Zorya : Correct Score | 07-Aug-14 17:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Palmeiras v Avai : Correct Score | 06-Aug-14 23:30 | £12.48 | £10 | 125% |
| Football / Thor v Fram : Correct Score | 06-Aug-14 19:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Sheriff Tiraspol v Slovan Bratislava : Correct Score | 06-Aug-14 18:00 | -£31.83 | £10 | -318% |
| Football / Atlantis v FC Viikkarit : Correct Score | 06-Aug-14 16:30 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / FK Jablonec U19 v Ceske Budejovice U19 : Correct Score | 06-Aug-14 13:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / FAC Team fur Wien v KSV Superfund : Correct Score | 05-Aug-14 17:30 | £6.18 | £10 | 62% |
| Football / FAC Team fur Wien v KSV Superfund : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 05-Aug-14 17:30 | -£5.70 | £10 | -57% |
| Football / FK Teplice U19 v FC Zlin U19 : Correct Score | 05-Aug-14 10:00 | £8.07 | £10 | 81% |
| Football / Celtic U20 v St Mirren U20 : Correct Score | 04-Aug-14 19:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / IFK Goteborg v AIK : Correct Score | 04-Aug-14 18:05 | £5.71 | £10 | 57% |
| Football / IFK Goteborg v AIK : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 04-Aug-14 18:05 | -£6.30 | £10 | -63% |
| Football / Mattersburg v St Polten : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 04-Aug-14 17:30 | -£3.85 | £10 | -39% |
| Football / Mattersburg v St Polten : Correct Score | 04-Aug-14 17:30 | £1.40 | £10 | 14% |
| Football / FK Mlada Boleslav U21 v Ceske Budejovice U21 : Correct Score | 04-Aug-14 14:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / 1. FK Pribram U21 v FK Jablonec U21 : Correct Score | 04-Aug-14 12:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Nurnberg v Erzgebirge : Correct Score | 03-Aug-14 14:30 | £7.56 | £10 | 76% |
| Football / Odd v Sandnes Ulf : Correct Score | 03-Aug-14 14:30 | £9.51 | £10 | 95% |
| Football / FC Zurich v Young Boys : Correct Score | 03-Aug-14 12:45 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Shonan v Jef Utd Chiba : Correct Score | 03-Aug-14 11:00 | £9.84 | £10 | 98% |
| Football / Yamagata v Oita : Correct Score | 03-Aug-14 10:00 | £5.76 | £10 | 58% |
| Football / Sparta Prague v Vysocina Jihlava : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 19:15 | £7.56 | £10 | 76% |
| Football / SV Ried v Red Bull Salzburg : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 18:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / FC Brno v Hradec Kralove : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 16:00 | £10.00 | £10 | 100% |
| Football / Norrkoping v Hacken : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 15:00 | -£34.20 | £10 | -342% |
| Football / Norrkoping v Hacken : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 02-Aug-14 15:00 | -£8.07 | £10 | -81% |
| Football / Tosu v Nagoya : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 11:00 | £5.01 | £10 | 50% |
| Football / FC Tokyo v Shimizu : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 10:30 | £3.74 | £10 | 37% |
| Football / Sillamae Kalev v Tammeka Tartu : Correct Score | 01-Aug-14 17:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Warriors FC v Albirex Niigata : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 01-Aug-14 12:30 | £12.07 | £10 | 121% |
| Football / Warriors FC v Albirex Niigata : Correct Score | 01-Aug-14 12:30 | £1.26 | £10 | 13% |
| Football / Elfsborg v Hafnarfjordur : Correct Score | 31-Jul-14 17:00 | £17.44 | £10 | 174% |
| Football / Kalmar FF U21 v Mjallby U21 : Correct Score | 31-Jul-14 15:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Grindavik v BI Bolungarvik : Correct Score | 30-Jul-14 19:00 | £8.88 | £10 | 89% |
| Football / Iwata v Kamatamare Sanuki : Correct Score | 30-Jul-14 11:00 | £7.84 | £10 | 78% |
| Football / Slovan Bratislava v Sheriff Tiraspol : Correct Score | 29-Jul-14 19:15 | £55.63 | £10 | 556% |
| Football / Syrianska IF Kerburan v Norrtalje : Correct Score | 29-Jul-14 18:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Hammarby v Assyriska : Correct Score | 28-Jul-14 18:20 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Lokomotiv Sofia v Litex Lovech : Correct Score | 28-Jul-14 16:30 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Colo Colo v Deportes Iquique : Correct Score | 27-Jul-14 23:00 | £13.85 | £10 | 139% |
| Football / Vancouver Whitecaps v Dallas : Correct Score | 27-Jul-14 22:00 | £0.46 | £10 | 5% |
| Football / Trencin v Podbrezova : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 27-Jul-14 16:30 | -£5.40 | £10 | -54% |
| Football / Trencin v Podbrezova : Correct Score | 27-Jul-14 16:30 | £5.90 | £10 | 59% |
| Football / Honved v Dunaujvaros : Correct Score | 26-Jul-14 15:30 | £14.23 | £10 | 142% |
| £507.27 | 3440% |
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