Tuesday 26 August 2014

Few Steps Backwards

I Warned Myself!


I did say that the weekend could bring glorious riches or disastrous losses, unfortunately it was the latter. You always run the risk of becoming over confident and feeling invincible when you enter the markets.


A few losers later and your head is gone and you're too scared (miss some winners) then too careless (hit more losers).


Friday was actually a very good day. I continued with a calm and un-rushed approach and won £106 over 3 trades (2 pre match selections and 1 in play). These ended about 7pm and I resisted the urge to dive back in, with all sorts of games kicking off in France, Holland and Ireland.


12 hours later and I was out and about, and had a small and controlled loss in Japan whilst trading on my phone.


I got home and had some chores to do and I was pretty stressed by the time I sat down at 2.45pm ahead of the 3pm kick offs. Never a good way to start the day.


The next 5-6 hours was a blur of mediocrity and trading like the old days, rushed, eager to get involved with generally dreadful selections. The irony is whilst on holiday I had limited time so just traded when I could, with no real urgency or obligation to do so. Now I'm home and had the whole day to sit in the 'office' I felt this was the perfect situation to just turn around a 1000% day. It could well be, but I need to avoid scanning the Betfair / 365 games on show and just fucking focus!


Saturday was dreadful, losing 1090% (10.9 points). Ironically I've points out 5 awful decisions I made / games I entered which lost 1305%. So take those away and would have been a satisfying day. I've identified the obvious mistakes I made so hopefully could learn from them...


Nope...


Sunday a bit better, 50% (0.5 points) profit. Better than a loss. This net result also contained a hefty 407% Correct Score loss, which is part and parcel of trading that type of market. Stupidly this also included a Japanese game I did on my phone in bed as soon as I woke up! What a dick! -300%. And then a loser straight after in Kazakhstan. Not sure why I'm risking my future earnings on such ridiculous decisions...


Monday was manic. Simply put. Was out and about and stressed. Trading on my phone. Ended up -694% (6.9 points), including a 351% CS loss and 600% over 2 wank trades I shouldn't have touched.


Tuesday and got my head screwed back on. Just 2 pre match CS trades yielding a Scratch and a small controlled loss of 78%.


Sunday marks the end of the month so hoping to maintain my 30 point target!


21st - 26th August: -£187.80

Blog Total:
£189.03



This reflects multiple staking levels between £10-20, the actual % return so far is 25.75 since 26th July.





Thursday 21 August 2014

Progressing Nicely

2 Solid Days

Very quick update as on my phone unfortunately.

Carried on in the same manner the last 2 days. There has not been a huge fixture list with regards to league action and am often wary of cup matches. For the latter I much prefer to enter the markets later on in the game so you can get a feel for what might happen. At which point prices are larger anyway so win-win (unless you lose).

Still using my same methodology and 2 systems are previously mentioned, feeling more confident by the day.

I also noticed that us football traders have much bigger % wins on our stakes that the horse and cricket boys, not sure if that makes it harder or easier for us.

Anyway 1 trade yesterday and 3 today. 3 winners and 1 scratch for a total of £83. Remaining at £20 stakes for now so that's over 400% (4 points) and well on course for my 1 point a day / 30 a month target.

Much busier fixture list tomorrow and then the weekend is literally gonna be huge. Come Sunday night I could be massively up or massively down. If I hit a loser early on Satirday I have to be careful as I can stop and be safe or can plod on but could lose more. See what happens.

Will update blog PnL when back on laptop.


Tuesday 19 August 2014

Send Me Back....! Progress Made

A Breakthrough

Welcome back to my blog (for anyone actually reading it)!

I left you all on the 24th July feeling fairly deflated after a run of losses that left my 'Blog Bank' at -£130.44 for £10 stakes, or 13 points, or 1300%.

In my short time trading (10 months) I have noticed a common theme of jumping continuously between systems, usually dropping them when they don't work and starting/trying something new that is bound to be the new holy grail. In the previous few weeks with my blog in a losing position I had a fairly small number of systems on the go.

Some were doing ok (2.5) and some had potential but needed more time (CS). My main issue it seemed was working on the basis of risking 1 point (100%) for perhaps a 70% profit. It doesn't take a genius to work out that isn't really sustainable with out incredible strike rate.

I left for my 3 weeks holiday with some optimism for the CS (Correct Score) market trading which can yield big profits if utilised correctly.

I aimed to use the holiday time to really reflect on my life, my trading and where I wanted it all to go in the next few years. This really is serious business to me. Caan loaded up a pic on FB earlier saying:


"Success in life comes when you simply refuse to give up, with goals so strong that obstacles, failure, and loss only act as motivation"

I read a couple of books whilst relaxing on the beach, notably 'Think and Grow Rich'. I'm not sure I took too much from it but maybe I did subconsciously.

I decided to dabble in some trades in my 'free time' e.g. whilst lazing on the beach with some decent signal or whilst the missus (she hates that term) was showering before heading out for the evening. This left me with fairly small windows to check out the market, see if anything took my fancy and if anything had potential.

I started entering the CS market at both half time and pre-match and started doing very well indeed. I haven't really looked back since.

What has changed?

Structure

Even with 5-6 systems previously (used to have 10+), trading can become quite stressful and you can really run yourself down on the busy days trying to capture all opportunities and avoid that feeling of 'missing' out on a great profitable game.

Whilst on holiday and since my return, I have used 2 systems. No more.

I have very strict criteria for trades I will enter. Anything else I have zero interest in at this moment in time. Call that discipline I guess. I am happy to branch out in the future as I have previously, but I need to develop my bread and butter trading and build my bank up to a decent standard.

Planning

Nothing too complex. I use Futbol24 app on my phone. Each morning I look at the entire days fixtures, knowing which will be in play on Betfair and which will have sufficient liquidity (100x Stake). I then 'favourite' teams playing in Leagues I have a good working knowledge of. This moves them into a separate section. I do the research I need on those I'm entering pre-match (20 mins effort) and then wait. If something happens during the matches that mean I'm no longer interested, I just unfave them and they're out of my mind forever.

Staking

I'm working at a rough 5% stake of bank, with a max 300% liability so more realistically 15% of bank. This will change now as I take more caution. Did not deviate from this at all and waited until the next £100 mark was met before moving on.

Mindset

As mentioned this is serious business to me. I am practically reliant on it to fulfil my short-mid term goals of getting engaged, married and quitting my job! Not too much eh! I told Pete earlier I will have to die before I fail to make it at this game. You won't find a more determined son of a bitch, believe me. I will not make mistakes lightly (although I have made some the last month of course, we all do).

Results?

This is not some sort of bullshit success story, I'm still an amateur in this game for sure, but I've seen a real turnaround this month, enough to give me real encouragement that I can achieve my goals. I am calm, clear minded, I know exactly what I need to do and how to do it. Only I alone can fuck this up over the long term.

Results in a dodgy download from Betfair. The yellow items highlighted are those I identified as clear mistakes I made which I hope to learn from and eradicate.

25th July - 20th August: £507.27

Blog Total:
£376.83


I would say a long term aim would be 20-30 points a month, so really chuffed with the blog progress, now approx 1 month in. Will stop rambling now, been a long ass day. A quick thanks to Pete for keeping me on track!



MarketStart timeProfit/loss (GBP)Stake%
Football / Norwich v Blackburn : Correct Score19-Aug-14 19:45 £131.05£20655%
Football / Norwich v Blackburn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals19-Aug-14 19:45 -£9.60£20-48%
Football / Paide Linnameeskond v Nomme Kalju : Correct Score19-Aug-14 17:00 £94.15£20471%
Football / Breidablik v Fram : Correct Score18-Aug-14 20:15 £48.25£20241%
Football / St Patricks v Limerick : Correct Score18-Aug-14 19:45 £0.00£200%
Football / Vikingur Reykjavik v IBV : Correct Score18-Aug-14 19:00 £0.05£200%
Football / Kuban Krasnodar v Amkar : Correct Score18-Aug-14 18:00 £0.00£200%
Football / Syrianska FC v Landskrona : Correct Score18-Aug-14 18:00 -£60.05£20-300%
Football / Syrianska FC v Landskrona : Over/Under 4.5 Goals18-Aug-14 18:00 -£18.56£20-93%
Football / Bodo Glimt v Sandnes Ulf : Correct Score17-Aug-14 17:00 £0.00£200%
Football / Sundsvall v Osters : Correct Score17-Aug-14 17:20 -£17.79£20-89%
Football / Sundsvall v Osters : Over/Under 4.5 Goals17-Aug-14 17:20 £42.91£20215%
Football / Utrecht v Willem II : Correct Score17-Aug-14 13:30 £25.03£20125%
Football / Sendai v Shimizu : Correct Score16-Aug-14 11:00 £22.32£15149%
Football / Sendai v Shimizu : Over/Under 4.5 Goals16-Aug-14 11:00 £16.13£15108%
Football / AC Sparta Praha U19 v FK Pardubice U19 : Correct Score16-Aug-14 10:00 £38.33£15256%
Football / Start v Stromsgodset : Correct Score15-Aug-14 18:00 £29.04£15194%
Football / Start v Stromsgodset : Over/Under 4.5 Goals15-Aug-14 18:00 £42.84£15286%
Football / Eastleigh v Aldershot : Correct Score14-Aug-14 19:45 £0.00£150%
Football / FC Basel v St Gallen : Correct Score14-Aug-14 19:00 -£46.08£15-307%
Football / Odd v Brann : Correct Score14-Aug-14 19:00 £18.43£15123%
Football / HB Koge v AGF : Correct Score14-Aug-14 18:00 -£45.08£15-301%
Football / Kalmar FF v Falkenbergs : Over/Under 4.5 Goals14-Aug-14 18:00 -£7.65£15-51%
Football / Kalmar FF v Falkenbergs : Correct Score14-Aug-14 18:00 £24.01£15160%
Football / Kalmar FF v Falkenbergs : Correct Score 2 Home14-Aug-14 18:00 -£1.50£15-10%
Football / AIK v Djurgardens : Correct Score13-Aug-14 18:05 £7.53£1550%
Football / Brommapojkarna v Gefle : Correct Score13-Aug-14 18:00 £18.28£15122%
Football / Brommapojkarna v Gefle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals13-Aug-14 18:00 -£8.55£15-57%
Football / Rotherham v Fleetwood Town : Correct Score12-Aug-14 19:45 -£52.75£15-352%
Football / Benfica v Rio Ave : Correct Score10-Aug-14 20:45 -£44.80£15-299%
Football / IBV v Hafnarfjordur : Over/Under 4.5 Goals10-Aug-14 18:00 -£12.60£15-84%
Football / IBV v Hafnarfjordur : Correct Score10-Aug-14 18:00 £6.66£1544%
Football / Dnipro v Karpaty : Correct Score10-Aug-14 17:30 £17.23£15115%
Football / Sogndal v Bodo Glimt : Correct Score10-Aug-14 17:00 £0.00£150%
Football / AIK v Gefle : Correct Score10-Aug-14 16:30 £55.82£15372%
Football / AIK v Gefle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals10-Aug-14 16:30 -£9.45£15-63%
Football / IFK Mariehamn v Honka : Correct Score10-Aug-14 16:30 £8.08£1554%
Football / MFK Kosice v Slovan Bratislava : Correct Score10-Aug-14 15:30 £28.53£15190%
Football / Sparta Rotterdam v Den Bosch : Correct Score10-Aug-14 13:30 £0.00£150%
Football / Sligo Rovers v Athlone : Correct Score09-Aug-14 19:45 £42.79£15285%
Football / Longford v Finn Harps : Correct Score09-Aug-14 19:30 -£44.64£15-298%
Football / SCR Altach v Wolfsberger AC : Correct Score09-Aug-14 18:00 £14.26£1595%
Football / Atvidabergs v Kalmar FF : Correct Score09-Aug-14 15:00 £89.39£15596%
Football / Atvidabergs v Kalmar FF : Over/Under 4.5 Goals09-Aug-14 15:00 -£6.75£15-45%
Football / Nottm Forest v Blackpool : Match Odds09-Aug-14 15:00 £0.06£150%
Football / FC Inter v SJK : Correct Score09-Aug-14 14:00 £45.46£15303%
Football / Cottbus v Rot-Weiss Erfurt : Correct Score09-Aug-14 13:00 -£44.00£15-293%
Football / Nagoya v Kashima : Correct Score09-Aug-14 11:00 £7.76£1552%
Football / Nagoya v Kashima : Over/Under 4.5 Goals09-Aug-14 11:00 £15.66£15104%
Football / FK Suduva v Trakai : Correct Score09-Aug-14 10:00 -£43.45£15-290%
Football / Icasa v America MG : Correct Score08-Aug-14 23:30 £12.79£1585%
Football / KSV Superfund v SV Horn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals08-Aug-14 17:30 -£10.80£15-72%
Football / KSV Superfund v SV Horn : Correct Score08-Aug-14 17:30 -£46.50£15-310%
Football / Sirius v Degerfors : Correct Score08-Aug-14 17:20 £0.00£100%
Football / AIK v FC Astana : Correct Score07-Aug-14 18:00 £0.00£100%
Football / Molde v Zorya : Correct Score07-Aug-14 17:00 £0.00£100%
Football / Palmeiras v Avai : Correct Score06-Aug-14 23:30 £12.48£10125%
Football / Thor v Fram : Correct Score06-Aug-14 19:00 £0.00£100%
Football / Sheriff Tiraspol v Slovan Bratislava : Correct Score06-Aug-14 18:00 -£31.83£10-318%
Football / Atlantis v FC Viikkarit : Correct Score06-Aug-14 16:30 £0.00£100%
Football / FK Jablonec U19 v Ceske Budejovice U19 : Correct Score06-Aug-14 13:00 £0.00£100%
Football / FAC Team fur Wien v KSV Superfund : Correct Score05-Aug-14 17:30 £6.18£1062%
Football / FAC Team fur Wien v KSV Superfund : Over/Under 4.5 Goals05-Aug-14 17:30 -£5.70£10-57%
Football / FK Teplice U19 v FC Zlin U19 : Correct Score05-Aug-14 10:00 £8.07£1081%
Football / Celtic U20 v St Mirren U20 : Correct Score04-Aug-14 19:00 £0.00£100%
Football / IFK Goteborg v AIK : Correct Score04-Aug-14 18:05 £5.71£1057%
Football / IFK Goteborg v AIK : Over/Under 4.5 Goals04-Aug-14 18:05 -£6.30£10-63%
Football / Mattersburg v St Polten : Over/Under 4.5 Goals04-Aug-14 17:30 -£3.85£10-39%
Football / Mattersburg v St Polten : Correct Score04-Aug-14 17:30 £1.40£1014%
Football / FK Mlada Boleslav U21 v Ceske Budejovice U21 : Correct Score04-Aug-14 14:00 £0.00£100%
Football / 1. FK Pribram U21 v FK Jablonec U21 : Correct Score04-Aug-14 12:00 £0.00£100%
Football / Nurnberg v Erzgebirge : Correct Score03-Aug-14 14:30 £7.56£1076%
Football / Odd v Sandnes Ulf : Correct Score03-Aug-14 14:30 £9.51£1095%
Football / FC Zurich v Young Boys : Correct Score03-Aug-14 12:45 £0.00£100%
Football / Shonan v Jef Utd Chiba : Correct Score03-Aug-14 11:00 £9.84£1098%
Football / Yamagata v Oita : Correct Score03-Aug-14 10:00 £5.76£1058%
Football / Sparta Prague v Vysocina Jihlava : Correct Score02-Aug-14 19:15 £7.56£1076%
Football / SV Ried v Red Bull Salzburg : Correct Score02-Aug-14 18:00 £0.00£100%
Football / FC Brno v Hradec Kralove : Correct Score02-Aug-14 16:00 £10.00£10100%
Football / Norrkoping v Hacken : Correct Score02-Aug-14 15:00 -£34.20£10-342%
Football / Norrkoping v Hacken : Over/Under 4.5 Goals02-Aug-14 15:00 -£8.07£10-81%
Football / Tosu v Nagoya : Correct Score02-Aug-14 11:00 £5.01£1050%
Football / FC Tokyo v Shimizu : Correct Score02-Aug-14 10:30 £3.74£1037%
Football / Sillamae Kalev v Tammeka Tartu : Correct Score01-Aug-14 17:00 £0.00£100%
Football / Warriors FC v Albirex Niigata : Over/Under 4.5 Goals01-Aug-14 12:30 £12.07£10121%
Football / Warriors FC v Albirex Niigata : Correct Score01-Aug-14 12:30 £1.26£1013%
Football / Elfsborg v Hafnarfjordur : Correct Score31-Jul-14 17:00 £17.44£10174%
Football / Kalmar FF U21 v Mjallby U21 : Correct Score31-Jul-14 15:00 £0.00£100%
Football / Grindavik v BI Bolungarvik : Correct Score30-Jul-14 19:00 £8.88£1089%
Football / Iwata v Kamatamare Sanuki : Correct Score30-Jul-14 11:00 £7.84£1078%
Football / Slovan Bratislava v Sheriff Tiraspol : Correct Score29-Jul-14 19:15 £55.63£10556%
Football / Syrianska IF Kerburan v Norrtalje : Correct Score29-Jul-14 18:00 £0.00£100%
Football / Hammarby v Assyriska : Correct Score28-Jul-14 18:20 £0.00£100%
Football / Lokomotiv Sofia v Litex Lovech : Correct Score28-Jul-14 16:30 £0.00£100%
Football / Colo Colo v Deportes Iquique : Correct Score27-Jul-14 23:00 £13.85£10139%
Football / Vancouver Whitecaps v Dallas : Correct Score27-Jul-14 22:00 £0.46£105%
Football / Trencin v Podbrezova : Over/Under 4.5 Goals27-Jul-14 16:30 -£5.40£10-54%
Football / Trencin v Podbrezova : Correct Score27-Jul-14 16:30 £5.90£1059%
Football / Honved v Dunaujvaros : Correct Score26-Jul-14 15:30 £14.23£10142%

£507.27
3440%