Day 9 Continued

Pasting from Betfair clearly fucks up this blog. So, carrying on...

The 19th was clearly an attrocious day. Looks typical of over trading to be honest. Not my finest hour but I'm big enough to post it up. 

Will do the next 5 days in one go...

Football / Reynir Sandgerdi v Njardvik : Correct Score			10.68
Football / Sligo Rovers v Rosenborg : Correct Score			10.27
Football / Sligo Rovers v Rosenborg : Over/Under 4.5 Goals			0.00
Football / AIK v Linfield : Correct Score			8.88
Football / AIK v Linfield : Over/Under 1.5 Goals			-4.00
Football / Shakhter Karagandy v FK Atlantas : Correct Score			5.24
Football / Yokohama FM v Kobe : Correct Score			-28.28
Football / Yokohama FM v Kobe : Over/Under 4.5 Goals			-4.00
Football / Kofu v C-Osaka : Over/Under 2.5 Goals			-10.00
Football / Tosu v Kawasaki : Correct Score			9.52
Football / Yokohama FM v Kobe : Half Time Score			2.00
Football / Vikingur Reykjavik v Fjolnir : Correct Score			-20.51
Football / Vikingur Reykjavik v Fjolnir : Over/Under 4.5 Goals			-6.50
Football / IBV v Fram : Correct Score			0.19
Football / Honka v Jaro : Correct Score			0.00
Football / Falkenbergs v AIK : Correct Score			-16.50
Football / Falkenbergs v AIK : Over/Under 4.5 Goals			28.56

What I like about the above is the lower volume compared to the previous couple of days. Better decisions and Greens outweighing the Reds. 

Total here is actually a loss, but fuck me that Yokohama game should have been a 400% win at least. Lesson learned there anyway. 

Over the course of a season, the CS results should be up. In my last 9 months of practicing (only been trading these methods that long) I'm only down 9 points (900%) which in context of trading is sod all. Ready to attack the Winter leagues properly now. 

Notice no stupid 1.5 trades here. The 1.5 at AIK was a hedge of my open position rather than opening a market. 

I'll update my blog tally when I'm back, no doubt its massively down. Probably over 1,000%. That is however recoverable in just 2 decent CS trades, so the potential is here. 

See you soon.

Days 8+ .... Lost Track!

Busy Busy Busy

Fallen into the trap I wanted to avoid of not having enough time to update the blog, whilst still having the time to make lots of shit trades and lose all my money!

A final quick update now before 3 weeks holiday so nothing after this till mid August. 

I suspect it's easier to update these things when you're on a roll. I've had some heavy losses this week however largely due to the introduction of 'Correct Score' trading. 

The daily options are still fairly restricted with only Norway, Iceland, Sweden and some UEFA Cup on show. There are some wanky Estonia / Finland fixtures about but generally slim pickings. 

Whilst this shouldn't be a problem and discipline kicks in and you don't trade anything you shouldn't, it just means volume is down so perhaps on a Saturday where you might see a pattern of W-W-L-L-W-W-W...you could get stung now with L-L-W and no real chance to recover any losses significantly. 

Having more time to think about my strategies going forward, I will revert back to my Excel tracking spreadsheets of each system, and focus on quality over quantity. That doesn't mean I will restrict myself to x trades a day/week, rather I will only enter a trade with a confidence level in my head of about 90%+. 

This has paid dividends the last two days as you'll see below. I'm not particularly concerned with the CS losses as its a high risk/high gain method so -300% losses will be frequent. The aim is to buffer them with some 500%+ wins inbetween. 

Whilst you make your own luck and all that, I genuinely feel unlucky with 2 Japan games being perfectly primed at HT for a massive green, only to both be goalless in the second half. Completely going against stats so far this season and in play stats. Gotta swallow it and move on.

Day 8 

Football / HK Kopavogur v KV : Match Odds			4.15
Football / Cork City v UCD : Correct Score			-22.00
Football / Cork City v UCD : 1st Goal			9.52
Football / Austria Lustenau v FAC Team fur Wien : Over/Under 1.5 Goals			-10.00
Football / KaPa v Pallohonka : Over/Under 2.5 Goals			2.69

Getting sick of the 1.5 method so that will be adapted going forward (as of writing this blog, not as of Day 8). Not sure what happened with the Cork game, that should be a -10.00 liability on the CS market, must have fucked up. Moron.  

Day 9

 

Football / Deportivo Cali v Boyaca Chico : Over/Under 1.5 Goals			-10.00
Football / Admira Wacker v Wolfsberger AC : Correct Score			0.57
Football / Stromsgodset v Valerenga : Match Odds			-3.30

Football / Flora Tallinn II v Viljandi JK Tulevik : Over/Under 2.5 Goals			-10.00
Football / Haskovo v Ludogorets : Match Odds			-10.00
Football / Valur v KR Reykjavik : Correct Score			-10.00
Football / Start v Bodo Glimt : Correct Score			0.10
Football / Start v Bodo Glimt : Over/Under 4.5 Goals			-7.51
Football / Kashiwa v Sendai : Over/Under 1.5 Goals			-10.00
Football / Nagoya v Tokushima : Over/Under 4.5 Goals			-6.44
Football / Nagoya v Tokushima : Correct Score			-29.00

Day 7 - 1 Trade 1 Winner - Simple As They Come

Unspectacular

Absolutely horrendous few days at work this week. Really not having any time at all to pursue other delightful activities...

I did however spot an O2.5 market at a stupid price of 3.2 about 12 minutes into the match. The prices in BF obvious reflect the historic stats and likelihood but what they rarely do some often is update for live match action. These buggers were going at it from the off and although the first half ended 0-2 (and ended that way as far as I know), I traded out on the first goal (17 mins ish) for a near 70%. 

An outright mug bet looking for 'value' here (if there was any, must have been at 3.2) would have lost. 

 

I was also quite pleased with myself for making 7p (£10 staked) in a 3 hour period from backing Nottingham Forest (v Blackpool) in their first match of the season. All sorts of chat at the moment about Blackpool's impending doom so with kick off a few weeks away, Forest at 1.61 seemed way too high. Couldn't be bothered to wait a month but an easy 7% which is no laughing matter when sticking £1,000 into the pre match market which would ultimately be the long term goal. 

Going forward I'm off on holiday for a few weeks soon which means no blogging and probably no trading.

I have 'Think and Grow Rich' and 'Bounce' on their way from Amazon to keep me entertained. Also lots of time to think and plan for the new (Winter) season. I will come back refreshed, full of beans and with a fool proof plan to make my millions...

Not going until Friday so perhaps some more entries before then. Most likely some Correct Score action this weekend which has the biggest potential returns so looking to crack that market sooner than later.  

Day 7: £6.92

July Total: -£4.77

Blog Total: -£4.77

Days 5 and 6 - What A Load of Rubbish!

I Am Calmness Personified...

Am I fuck. Really frustrating couple of days since my last update. Why frustrating?

1) There has been a fairly limited fixture list. I've resorted to loading up 6-12 games each day of FlashScores to keep an eye on. Had zero time to do any prep or research on any of them until literally 5 mins before kick off. As a result it means any losses (of which there are a few...) are hard to claw back compared to a normal weekend for example where you have matched coming out your earhole to trade with. It just means I've possibly entered games I normally wouldn't have. Tonights Champions League qualifiers for example. Pete would tell me to A) stay away from Cups and B) never touch 1st legs. Guess he is right. Been stung by 3 of the bastards.
 

2) In the spare few seconds I've had in work whilst there are no matches on, I've been reading multiple new blogs, reading about other people's successes. Meant to be inspirational stuff and here's me blowing the last 2 days work down the drain. 

3) Some teams these last 2 days really have been pathetic. Check this lot out for example...

 

As far as I know this was St Pats Champions League debut, away at Legia Warsaw who are Polish champions. Even Stevie Wonder can see the dominance of the home team. 19 shots off target, perhaps they should lay off the Vodka at half time. Admittedly the game went 1-1 in the 91st minute after I took this shot, but not exactly giving anyone any decent time to take advantage of the price swings. 

I also lost 1 point at BATE in Belarus. These chaps have now drawn 5 0-0s in their last 8 home games in all comps. Corrupt or incompetent I guess. I knew their history well, but I thought the odds of ANOTHER 0-0 against Skënderbeu Korçë (yes exactly - who?) would be fairly high. 

All in all, lost about 3 points which puts the blog into a loss position. No real disaster, we're only 6 days in and there's sod all to trade. Lack of discipline I guess. One positive however is that most of this trading is in the goal/match markets. I'm hoping the Correct Score games come into sway soon (Winter Leagues) which means potential wins of up to 300-500% a time.

 

Day 5/6: -£33.02

July Total: -£11.69

Blog Total: -£11.69

Day 4 - Not Bad - Could Do Better

TBC

Day 4: £12.18

July Total: £21.33

Blog Total: £21.33

Days 2 and 3 - Frustrating Weekend

Meh
Saturday was one of those annoying days where you end up getting involved in eventual shite and the ones you wanted in on had bugger all liquidity. 

Earmarked 4 games that went perfectly to plan, with about £50 combined in the lot of them. What are these bloody Finnish people doing on a Saturday??

Saturday was miserable and went down 2 points, of which an entire point was in Russia which is a league I'm normally wary of. Got sucked in by the stats at half time and by 60 mins the market completely turned against me and there was more value in staying in than exiting!

Sunday was back on track and pretty much clawed back Saturday's losses. 

A cracker of a game in Belarus that went 0-0 HT to 2-2 and a nice predictable late goal in Latvia. Some really high quality leagues in use here...

Day 2 & 3: -£1.28

July Total: £9.15

Blog Total: £9.15

Day 1 - Nice Simple Start

  
Keeping it simple

Have in my head that I will use perhaps 4-5 main strategies going forward. I've purchased a fair few eBooks that give an abundance of strategies however it is easy to get bogged down and panic on the busy match days. Saturday and Sunday could literally blow your mind if you don't have structure and a plan. 

I've not got into scalping the pre match markets yet, however it is in my plans for the future when the bank gets going. 

I'll not lie, I get very bored using £10 stakes because I feel it's a waste of my time. Why study and slog it out to win a tenna a day. But that's the wrong attitude. This is a numbers game. If I can't build my bank with £10 stakes then I certainly wouldn't with £100 stakes. I owe it to my virtual trading pal 'Irish Peter' aka 'Potato Chocolate King' for talking some sense into me.

I do feel to an extent that I perform better with bigger money, because it's not play time anymore, this is real cash and real winnings. Too much other financial commitment at the moment so I'll have to work for those stakes. 

Swamped in my day job to the extreme of late so opportunities to trade are limited. 35 mins research last night paid off. Focusing mainly on the Overs markets, I identified 10 games to keep an eye on. 

  
Of the 10 picks, 7 went O1.5 and 4 went O2.5. More importantly to get the markets moving, 7 had a first half goal. Note that 1 game was randomly postponed late on so 7 out of 9 with the first half goal, decent strike rate.

Some good discipline kicked in and stayed well away from the Estonia match. And it ended 0-0. Get the fuck in! Group 1 above I was happy with as good selections to get involved with should the early stages of the game look eventful, Group 2 needed a close watch. 

A small loss in an Ireland game. Decent in play stats prompted me to get involved at 0-0 HT (didn't get selected during my research e.g. didn't expect it to go O2.5 / FHG). Soon bailed out as it didn't look like upping a gear. Ended 0-1 late on in the 85th. Glad I bailed. 

Not much action, 5 trades but a profitable day, just a shade over a point. The mindset I'm in is the £100-£200 stake days. So could have been £100-200 up today, liquidity permitting. 

Day 1: £10.43

July Total: £10.43

Let's get this show on the road!

Welcome

Thanks for visiting my new blog where I will tackle to realms of Betfair trading in an attempt to change my life and free myself from the soul destroying grind of the 9 till 5, which in fact is more of a 8 till 7 for me! Even more motivation then...

Intro

Regular football gambler / accumulator boy since I was about...18 of course....

Got into a fairly decent routine of winning a few quid here and there, biggest was £3,500 on 5 fold on a Tuesday night! Had a few for £150-200 too but overall lost more than I won (in volume). I remember one accy I was waiting for the final team to win, heavy faves and a mate advised I lay them on Betfair. I was like 'yeh yeh done that'...having no idea WTF he was talking about. 

Gradually moved away from the accy's and started a system of backing at 1.33 - 1.5 on Bet365 using their delightful in play consol, sniffing out goals. Worked fairly well (£500 into £4,500 in the space of 3 months) until a few dodgy losers wrecked my discipline. Heads gone and the rest is history. 

Been playing with Betfair markets now for a few years and feel I have almost mastered the holy grails that are:

• Mindset
• Disclipline
• Bank Management 

I have managed this by blowing a fair few banks, trial and error of various strategies and systems, reading blogs and forums religiously and generally looking at my Futbol24 app 24/7 like some sort of crack addict. As others will tell you, nothing beats a bit of screen time and I honestly believe you have to blow a bank or two to learn to take a loss on the chin. No good being a winner from the off because the first big loss will end you. That said, big losses are a thing of the past now. 

Big fan of TraderDave and Caan Berry, despite them being in a totally different market to me. Good quality blogs and Dave cracks me up big time. 

The purpose of this blog is to give some transparency to my trading. I hope I'll fuck up alot less knowing my results are visible to the world!

On small stakes at the moment whilst I tweak a few things, but it's a numbers game and all I care about is the points returned. 

Here's to me hitting that Premium Charge.....Wish me luck.