Wishing the Days Away
Not something I would usually recommend of course, but it is exciting times at the moment for my trading portfolio.
It is keeping me busy and along with my day job (what an irritant), I'm not having much free time at the moment. I love the trading, I get up at 6am each morning to get into work early so I can catch up on it before my laborious day job. The day job is costing me money I think, or rather I know for sure. Perhaps in a years time I can resign and never go back.
My last blog post gave a summary of September but I don't think it mentioned the full extent of my little project atm, although it may have.
I am accumulating a database of football matches, hand picked each night for the following day, based on my own unique analysis for what I think will happen (based on 3 different criteria / filters). I then update the spreadsheet for the actual events including goals and goal times.
This information is invaluable for me, and with over 1,000 matches accumulated in just over 6 weeks, I can go back and use specific filters to find certain systems. I've found a fair few, all making 30+ points each to date. Powerful stuff.
My secret system previously mentioned is now up to 200 points on paper, and the live testing began in October with £2 stakes. It was up 33 points after 12 days, at which point I upped the stakes to £10. Very few selections since and have lost a couple and won a couple so at about 31 points for now.
I will carry on with the £10 stakes and expect approx 60-80 selections this weekend so very intrigued to see what will happen there.
A SHG (Second Half Goal) system I am also testing on £2 stakes is also up 8 points for October, modest but ok for 2 weeks.
My CS trading has been tweaked further, following last month where my new edge was throwing out too many selections that I couldnt resist trading, I've factored this selection process into some of my new database filters which spat out approx 40 selections the last 5 weeks with only 2 losses.
I have been using these more disciplined picks so far for Oct and am up 1400% exactly from 9 trades, of which 4 were 300%+. Brilliant stuff so far.
All in all over 50 points profit (5000%) so far in 15 days this month. Dreamland really.
Mixed stakes across different systems but my bank is well over £1,000 now. If it grows quick enough I could possibly be making some serious money in the next 6-12 months (50 points x £100 stakes....).
Hopefully have some good news Sunday night for you all!
Wednesday 15 October 2014
Monday 29 September 2014
Crazy Couple of Weeks
Up and Down
Was away last week with work and had what can only be described as the perfect trading week. I'm 99% sure that was down to the environment I was trading in.
I'd get back to my hotel room around 6pm ish, having had a gym session. I'd then put on the radio or some background TV noise and sit at the desk with peace and quiet to mull over the markets or do my research for the following day.
It saw my (at the time) biggest win of around 750% in a CS trade in Brazil (a risky league with huge rewards if you get a nice win). My final night in the hotel I did my research for the following days trading (Friday). Friday came and I got my biggest ever win yet again with over 800% in Ireland Division 1.
Safe to say I was on cloud 9 and my monthly target at that point was over 45 points, well over my target of 30.
What happened next was nothing short of disastrous.
I didn't have a huge amount of time to do my Saturday research (Friday night) but I got it done and decided to be confident in my new found 'edge' and include in my CS trades two very risky leagues in Serie B Italy and Greece Super League. Both appeared sound choices following the super month today.
Safe to say both lost, around 350% each. What happened alongside those games was even worse.
Of the 8 games I traded that day, I had 2 red cards (they fuck up matches big time) and 7, yes SEVEN (OUT OF EIGHT) missed penalties. Safe to say I lost a fair few of those 8 trades, and when your liability is 300-400% a go, they start adding up.
The rest of the week followed suit and I couldn't buy a winner for love nor money. A real low point and I hit rock bottom to be honest.
I turned my attention to my new system (previously) mentioned that I have been paper trading. At this point it was up 135 points in 4 weeks, remarkable. I started setting them up at £2 a go and found to my peril yesterday that 23 points worth hadn't been matched as the odds weren't quite there. Gutting.
That said today had a stormer and its up 939% in 1 day with real money staked.
Ended 'September' on Sunday night up approx 15 points, no disaster by any means but disappointing.
Lost track of my blog total but it is something like this:
Blog Total: Start - End of Sept 46 Points.
Oct to date 9.4 points.
Was away last week with work and had what can only be described as the perfect trading week. I'm 99% sure that was down to the environment I was trading in.
I'd get back to my hotel room around 6pm ish, having had a gym session. I'd then put on the radio or some background TV noise and sit at the desk with peace and quiet to mull over the markets or do my research for the following day.
It saw my (at the time) biggest win of around 750% in a CS trade in Brazil (a risky league with huge rewards if you get a nice win). My final night in the hotel I did my research for the following days trading (Friday). Friday came and I got my biggest ever win yet again with over 800% in Ireland Division 1.
Safe to say I was on cloud 9 and my monthly target at that point was over 45 points, well over my target of 30.
What happened next was nothing short of disastrous.
I didn't have a huge amount of time to do my Saturday research (Friday night) but I got it done and decided to be confident in my new found 'edge' and include in my CS trades two very risky leagues in Serie B Italy and Greece Super League. Both appeared sound choices following the super month today.
Safe to say both lost, around 350% each. What happened alongside those games was even worse.
Of the 8 games I traded that day, I had 2 red cards (they fuck up matches big time) and 7, yes SEVEN (OUT OF EIGHT) missed penalties. Safe to say I lost a fair few of those 8 trades, and when your liability is 300-400% a go, they start adding up.
The rest of the week followed suit and I couldn't buy a winner for love nor money. A real low point and I hit rock bottom to be honest.
I turned my attention to my new system (previously) mentioned that I have been paper trading. At this point it was up 135 points in 4 weeks, remarkable. I started setting them up at £2 a go and found to my peril yesterday that 23 points worth hadn't been matched as the odds weren't quite there. Gutting.
That said today had a stormer and its up 939% in 1 day with real money staked.
Ended 'September' on Sunday night up approx 15 points, no disaster by any means but disappointing.
Lost track of my blog total but it is something like this:
Blog Total: Start - End of Sept 46 Points.
Oct to date 9.4 points.
Monday 15 September 2014
Green Green Green
Happy Mondays
3 Pre Match CS Trades (75%) and a perfect In Play (300%) means another cracking day.
With the CS games I will typically accept a small controlled lost of 20-50% once a certain point in the match has been met. It is much preferable to me than a scratch or full blown loss, and my wins more than compensate them. So I consider the 3 Pre Match games as 'wins' really.
The Fram match was perfect really but I opted to take 50% in the CS market to protect my IP profit from earlier.
Blog Total: £654.76 / 5465% / 54.65 points
3 Pre Match CS Trades (75%) and a perfect In Play (300%) means another cracking day.
With the CS games I will typically accept a small controlled lost of 20-50% once a certain point in the match has been met. It is much preferable to me than a scratch or full blown loss, and my wins more than compensate them. So I consider the 3 Pre Match games as 'wins' really.
The Fram match was perfect really but I opted to take 50% in the CS market to protect my IP profit from earlier.
Blog Total: £654.76 / 5465% / 54.65 points
Sunday 14 September 2014
Quick Weekend Update
First all green weekend
Finally a weekend with a green Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Been spending literally hours working on my secret new system that I am paper trading and along with another (with its own 74% strike rate), it is making my CS selections so much more logical, with great results.
Saturday: £26.27 (131%)
Not a classic, an in play that cost me 300% and an early Japan CS trade which blew another 300%. Last game of the day took me into profit.
Sunday: £79.39 (395%)
Includes a full blown worst case scenario loss in CS of 400% and spent all day trawling round the shops and driving down the motorway. All trading done on my phone, cannot complain with that result.
My secret new system hauled in an incredible 61 points on Saturday. Sunday pretty poor, but still took in 2 points profit. Total now is 83 points in 3 weeks assuming a lay price of 3.0. Ridiculous. I could well be retired soon if it works as well in principle.
Blog Total: £580.26 / 5095% / 50.95 points
Finally a weekend with a green Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Been spending literally hours working on my secret new system that I am paper trading and along with another (with its own 74% strike rate), it is making my CS selections so much more logical, with great results.
Saturday: £26.27 (131%)
Not a classic, an in play that cost me 300% and an early Japan CS trade which blew another 300%. Last game of the day took me into profit.
Sunday: £79.39 (395%)
Includes a full blown worst case scenario loss in CS of 400% and spent all day trawling round the shops and driving down the motorway. All trading done on my phone, cannot complain with that result.
My secret new system hauled in an incredible 61 points on Saturday. Sunday pretty poor, but still took in 2 points profit. Total now is 83 points in 3 weeks assuming a lay price of 3.0. Ridiculous. I could well be retired soon if it works as well in principle.
Blog Total: £580.26 / 5095% / 50.95 points
Friday 12 September 2014
August Target Smashed - Sept Looking Good
Which stage is this?
Which stage is what, I hear you ask.
There is a gem of a post from what I assume is a trading/betfair forum from years ago whereby someone very articulately talks through various stages of the betfair traders journey. This includes stages such as unconscious incompetence, conscious incompetence and unconscious competence. It is a very amusing but also very accurate.
One of the latter stages discusses breaking even most days, knowing that you generally make good calls and win more than you lose. The last step being the one where you know you have an edge that works long term and you just trade on auto pilot.
He (she?) suggests it takes 3-5 years to reach this stage. I'm not arrogant enough (well, I am actually) to assume I'm there already, but things are looking very good.
Since my last post (Aug 26th - sorry for delay), I managed to claw back some of the in play losses that haunted me so badly around that Bank Holiday Monday.
In my 'August' total I am including the 1-2 weeks back end of July, as that was when I started the blog, but August really was when I had the first of many 'Eureka' moments.
Anyway August ended up 3327% (33.27 points), split 1748 (17.48) In Play and 1579% (15.79) Pre Match.
The Pre Match is 99% Correct Score markets, the 2.5 nonsense I began the blog with has long gone, such is the speed of my development.
August saw me choosing In Play and CS trades using historic stats and in play stats, and I met my target of 30 points, just. Considering this was my first month with a consistent couple of systems and applying the long awaited discipline, with sod all fixtures, I was delighted with that.
Literally from the 1st September though I have had somewhat of a brainwave. All my subsequent Pre Match trades have not used the website I'm subscribed to for stats for the season. I've not even had a peep.
I have literally discovered what I consider to be an incredible edge with regards to selecting matches to trade. Generally I will need 3-4 goals, spread over first and second half with both teams scoring. Sounds easy? Well try it and see how you get on!
This eureka moment spawned from a system I have also been paper trading since 27th August, which is currently up 42.0 points from 324 selections, at an assumed lay price of 3.0.
Such a return not only in a short space of time, 2-3 weeks, at a fairly high lay price, is literally incredible. I am very excited by its potential, not only because there are so many selections each day/weekend but because the strike rate so far is alarmingly high (over 70%), across literally any league across the world. Betfair also has the liquidity in the market I need to apply real money to this.
Watch this space, if the return for the whole of September is anything near 15.0 points, let alone 40+ I will be bouncing off the walls and applying for a £10k loan to play with £100 stakes...maybe.
September has started very well, tonight being no exception. Despite the lack of fixtures for a whole week due to the international break, September is currently up 1240% (12.4 points). I am still at £20 stakes. I won't play about with these until my bank reaches £1,500 ish.
I've seriously messed up my maths somewhere along the line, with regards to cumulative P&L. My points totals are accurate (from my spreadsheet of all my trades) but my betfair P&L is a lot higher.
I've done the BF one from when I started the blog, so we'll start again.
Blog Total: £474.60 / 4567% / 45.67 points
Which stage is what, I hear you ask.
There is a gem of a post from what I assume is a trading/betfair forum from years ago whereby someone very articulately talks through various stages of the betfair traders journey. This includes stages such as unconscious incompetence, conscious incompetence and unconscious competence. It is a very amusing but also very accurate.
One of the latter stages discusses breaking even most days, knowing that you generally make good calls and win more than you lose. The last step being the one where you know you have an edge that works long term and you just trade on auto pilot.
He (she?) suggests it takes 3-5 years to reach this stage. I'm not arrogant enough (well, I am actually) to assume I'm there already, but things are looking very good.
Since my last post (Aug 26th - sorry for delay), I managed to claw back some of the in play losses that haunted me so badly around that Bank Holiday Monday.
In my 'August' total I am including the 1-2 weeks back end of July, as that was when I started the blog, but August really was when I had the first of many 'Eureka' moments.
Anyway August ended up 3327% (33.27 points), split 1748 (17.48) In Play and 1579% (15.79) Pre Match.
The Pre Match is 99% Correct Score markets, the 2.5 nonsense I began the blog with has long gone, such is the speed of my development.
August saw me choosing In Play and CS trades using historic stats and in play stats, and I met my target of 30 points, just. Considering this was my first month with a consistent couple of systems and applying the long awaited discipline, with sod all fixtures, I was delighted with that.
Literally from the 1st September though I have had somewhat of a brainwave. All my subsequent Pre Match trades have not used the website I'm subscribed to for stats for the season. I've not even had a peep.
I have literally discovered what I consider to be an incredible edge with regards to selecting matches to trade. Generally I will need 3-4 goals, spread over first and second half with both teams scoring. Sounds easy? Well try it and see how you get on!
This eureka moment spawned from a system I have also been paper trading since 27th August, which is currently up 42.0 points from 324 selections, at an assumed lay price of 3.0.
Such a return not only in a short space of time, 2-3 weeks, at a fairly high lay price, is literally incredible. I am very excited by its potential, not only because there are so many selections each day/weekend but because the strike rate so far is alarmingly high (over 70%), across literally any league across the world. Betfair also has the liquidity in the market I need to apply real money to this.
Watch this space, if the return for the whole of September is anything near 15.0 points, let alone 40+ I will be bouncing off the walls and applying for a £10k loan to play with £100 stakes...maybe.
September has started very well, tonight being no exception. Despite the lack of fixtures for a whole week due to the international break, September is currently up 1240% (12.4 points). I am still at £20 stakes. I won't play about with these until my bank reaches £1,500 ish.
I've seriously messed up my maths somewhere along the line, with regards to cumulative P&L. My points totals are accurate (from my spreadsheet of all my trades) but my betfair P&L is a lot higher.
I've done the BF one from when I started the blog, so we'll start again.
Blog Total: £474.60 / 4567% / 45.67 points
Tuesday 26 August 2014
Few Steps Backwards
I Warned Myself!
I did say that the weekend could bring glorious riches or disastrous losses, unfortunately it was the latter. You always run the risk of becoming over confident and feeling invincible when you enter the markets.
A few losers later and your head is gone and you're too scared (miss some winners) then too careless (hit more losers).
Friday was actually a very good day. I continued with a calm and un-rushed approach and won £106 over 3 trades (2 pre match selections and 1 in play). These ended about 7pm and I resisted the urge to dive back in, with all sorts of games kicking off in France, Holland and Ireland.
12 hours later and I was out and about, and had a small and controlled loss in Japan whilst trading on my phone.
I got home and had some chores to do and I was pretty stressed by the time I sat down at 2.45pm ahead of the 3pm kick offs. Never a good way to start the day.
The next 5-6 hours was a blur of mediocrity and trading like the old days, rushed, eager to get involved with generally dreadful selections. The irony is whilst on holiday I had limited time so just traded when I could, with no real urgency or obligation to do so. Now I'm home and had the whole day to sit in the 'office' I felt this was the perfect situation to just turn around a 1000% day. It could well be, but I need to avoid scanning the Betfair / 365 games on show and just fucking focus!
Saturday was dreadful, losing 1090% (10.9 points). Ironically I've points out 5 awful decisions I made / games I entered which lost 1305%. So take those away and would have been a satisfying day. I've identified the obvious mistakes I made so hopefully could learn from them...
Nope...
Sunday a bit better, 50% (0.5 points) profit. Better than a loss. This net result also contained a hefty 407% Correct Score loss, which is part and parcel of trading that type of market. Stupidly this also included a Japanese game I did on my phone in bed as soon as I woke up! What a dick! -300%. And then a loser straight after in Kazakhstan. Not sure why I'm risking my future earnings on such ridiculous decisions...
Monday was manic. Simply put. Was out and about and stressed. Trading on my phone. Ended up -694% (6.9 points), including a 351% CS loss and 600% over 2 wank trades I shouldn't have touched.
Tuesday and got my head screwed back on. Just 2 pre match CS trades yielding a Scratch and a small controlled loss of 78%.
Sunday marks the end of the month so hoping to maintain my 30 point target!
21st - 26th August: -£187.80
Blog Total: £189.03
This reflects multiple staking levels between £10-20, the actual % return so far is 25.75 since 26th July.
I did say that the weekend could bring glorious riches or disastrous losses, unfortunately it was the latter. You always run the risk of becoming over confident and feeling invincible when you enter the markets.
A few losers later and your head is gone and you're too scared (miss some winners) then too careless (hit more losers).
Friday was actually a very good day. I continued with a calm and un-rushed approach and won £106 over 3 trades (2 pre match selections and 1 in play). These ended about 7pm and I resisted the urge to dive back in, with all sorts of games kicking off in France, Holland and Ireland.
12 hours later and I was out and about, and had a small and controlled loss in Japan whilst trading on my phone.
I got home and had some chores to do and I was pretty stressed by the time I sat down at 2.45pm ahead of the 3pm kick offs. Never a good way to start the day.
The next 5-6 hours was a blur of mediocrity and trading like the old days, rushed, eager to get involved with generally dreadful selections. The irony is whilst on holiday I had limited time so just traded when I could, with no real urgency or obligation to do so. Now I'm home and had the whole day to sit in the 'office' I felt this was the perfect situation to just turn around a 1000% day. It could well be, but I need to avoid scanning the Betfair / 365 games on show and just fucking focus!
Saturday was dreadful, losing 1090% (10.9 points). Ironically I've points out 5 awful decisions I made / games I entered which lost 1305%. So take those away and would have been a satisfying day. I've identified the obvious mistakes I made so hopefully could learn from them...
Nope...
Sunday a bit better, 50% (0.5 points) profit. Better than a loss. This net result also contained a hefty 407% Correct Score loss, which is part and parcel of trading that type of market. Stupidly this also included a Japanese game I did on my phone in bed as soon as I woke up! What a dick! -300%. And then a loser straight after in Kazakhstan. Not sure why I'm risking my future earnings on such ridiculous decisions...
Monday was manic. Simply put. Was out and about and stressed. Trading on my phone. Ended up -694% (6.9 points), including a 351% CS loss and 600% over 2 wank trades I shouldn't have touched.
Tuesday and got my head screwed back on. Just 2 pre match CS trades yielding a Scratch and a small controlled loss of 78%.
Sunday marks the end of the month so hoping to maintain my 30 point target!
21st - 26th August: -£187.80
Blog Total: £189.03
This reflects multiple staking levels between £10-20, the actual % return so far is 25.75 since 26th July.
Thursday 21 August 2014
Progressing Nicely
2 Solid Days
Very quick update as on my phone unfortunately.
Carried on in the same manner the last 2 days. There has not been a huge fixture list with regards to league action and am often wary of cup matches. For the latter I much prefer to enter the markets later on in the game so you can get a feel for what might happen. At which point prices are larger anyway so win-win (unless you lose).
Still using my same methodology and 2 systems are previously mentioned, feeling more confident by the day.
I also noticed that us football traders have much bigger % wins on our stakes that the horse and cricket boys, not sure if that makes it harder or easier for us.
Anyway 1 trade yesterday and 3 today. 3 winners and 1 scratch for a total of £83. Remaining at £20 stakes for now so that's over 400% (4 points) and well on course for my 1 point a day / 30 a month target.
Much busier fixture list tomorrow and then the weekend is literally gonna be huge. Come Sunday night I could be massively up or massively down. If I hit a loser early on Satirday I have to be careful as I can stop and be safe or can plod on but could lose more. See what happens.
Will update blog PnL when back on laptop.
Very quick update as on my phone unfortunately.
Carried on in the same manner the last 2 days. There has not been a huge fixture list with regards to league action and am often wary of cup matches. For the latter I much prefer to enter the markets later on in the game so you can get a feel for what might happen. At which point prices are larger anyway so win-win (unless you lose).
Still using my same methodology and 2 systems are previously mentioned, feeling more confident by the day.
I also noticed that us football traders have much bigger % wins on our stakes that the horse and cricket boys, not sure if that makes it harder or easier for us.
Anyway 1 trade yesterday and 3 today. 3 winners and 1 scratch for a total of £83. Remaining at £20 stakes for now so that's over 400% (4 points) and well on course for my 1 point a day / 30 a month target.
Much busier fixture list tomorrow and then the weekend is literally gonna be huge. Come Sunday night I could be massively up or massively down. If I hit a loser early on Satirday I have to be careful as I can stop and be safe or can plod on but could lose more. See what happens.
Will update blog PnL when back on laptop.
Tuesday 19 August 2014
Send Me Back....! Progress Made
A Breakthrough
Welcome back to my blog (for anyone actually reading it)!
I left you all on the 24th July feeling fairly deflated after a run of losses that left my 'Blog Bank' at -£130.44 for £10 stakes, or 13 points, or 1300%.
In my short time trading (10 months) I have noticed a common theme of jumping continuously between systems, usually dropping them when they don't work and starting/trying something new that is bound to be the new holy grail. In the previous few weeks with my blog in a losing position I had a fairly small number of systems on the go.
Some were doing ok (2.5) and some had potential but needed more time (CS). My main issue it seemed was working on the basis of risking 1 point (100%) for perhaps a 70% profit. It doesn't take a genius to work out that isn't really sustainable with out incredible strike rate.
I left for my 3 weeks holiday with some optimism for the CS (Correct Score) market trading which can yield big profits if utilised correctly.
I aimed to use the holiday time to really reflect on my life, my trading and where I wanted it all to go in the next few years. This really is serious business to me. Caan loaded up a pic on FB earlier saying:
"Success in life comes when you simply refuse to give up, with goals so strong that obstacles, failure, and loss only act as motivation"
I read a couple of books whilst relaxing on the beach, notably 'Think and Grow Rich'. I'm not sure I took too much from it but maybe I did subconsciously.
I decided to dabble in some trades in my 'free time' e.g. whilst lazing on the beach with some decent signal or whilst the missus (she hates that term) was showering before heading out for the evening. This left me with fairly small windows to check out the market, see if anything took my fancy and if anything had potential.
I started entering the CS market at both half time and pre-match and started doing very well indeed. I haven't really looked back since.
What has changed?
Structure
Even with 5-6 systems previously (used to have 10+), trading can become quite stressful and you can really run yourself down on the busy days trying to capture all opportunities and avoid that feeling of 'missing' out on a great profitable game.
Whilst on holiday and since my return, I have used 2 systems. No more.
I have very strict criteria for trades I will enter. Anything else I have zero interest in at this moment in time. Call that discipline I guess. I am happy to branch out in the future as I have previously, but I need to develop my bread and butter trading and build my bank up to a decent standard.
Planning
Nothing too complex. I use Futbol24 app on my phone. Each morning I look at the entire days fixtures, knowing which will be in play on Betfair and which will have sufficient liquidity (100x Stake). I then 'favourite' teams playing in Leagues I have a good working knowledge of. This moves them into a separate section. I do the research I need on those I'm entering pre-match (20 mins effort) and then wait. If something happens during the matches that mean I'm no longer interested, I just unfave them and they're out of my mind forever.
Staking
I'm working at a rough 5% stake of bank, with a max 300% liability so more realistically 15% of bank. This will change now as I take more caution. Did not deviate from this at all and waited until the next £100 mark was met before moving on.
Mindset
As mentioned this is serious business to me. I am practically reliant on it to fulfil my short-mid term goals of getting engaged, married and quitting my job! Not too much eh! I told Pete earlier I will have to die before I fail to make it at this game. You won't find a more determined son of a bitch, believe me. I will not make mistakes lightly (although I have made some the last month of course, we all do).
Results?
This is not some sort of bullshit success story, I'm still an amateur in this game for sure, but I've seen a real turnaround this month, enough to give me real encouragement that I can achieve my goals. I am calm, clear minded, I know exactly what I need to do and how to do it. Only I alone can fuck this up over the long term.
Results in a dodgy download from Betfair. The yellow items highlighted are those I identified as clear mistakes I made which I hope to learn from and eradicate.
25th July - 20th August: £507.27
Blog Total: £376.83
I would say a long term aim would be 20-30 points a month, so really chuffed with the blog progress, now approx 1 month in. Will stop rambling now, been a long ass day. A quick thanks to Pete for keeping me on track!
Welcome back to my blog (for anyone actually reading it)!
I left you all on the 24th July feeling fairly deflated after a run of losses that left my 'Blog Bank' at -£130.44 for £10 stakes, or 13 points, or 1300%.
In my short time trading (10 months) I have noticed a common theme of jumping continuously between systems, usually dropping them when they don't work and starting/trying something new that is bound to be the new holy grail. In the previous few weeks with my blog in a losing position I had a fairly small number of systems on the go.
Some were doing ok (2.5) and some had potential but needed more time (CS). My main issue it seemed was working on the basis of risking 1 point (100%) for perhaps a 70% profit. It doesn't take a genius to work out that isn't really sustainable with out incredible strike rate.
I left for my 3 weeks holiday with some optimism for the CS (Correct Score) market trading which can yield big profits if utilised correctly.
I aimed to use the holiday time to really reflect on my life, my trading and where I wanted it all to go in the next few years. This really is serious business to me. Caan loaded up a pic on FB earlier saying:
"Success in life comes when you simply refuse to give up, with goals so strong that obstacles, failure, and loss only act as motivation"
I read a couple of books whilst relaxing on the beach, notably 'Think and Grow Rich'. I'm not sure I took too much from it but maybe I did subconsciously.
I decided to dabble in some trades in my 'free time' e.g. whilst lazing on the beach with some decent signal or whilst the missus (she hates that term) was showering before heading out for the evening. This left me with fairly small windows to check out the market, see if anything took my fancy and if anything had potential.
I started entering the CS market at both half time and pre-match and started doing very well indeed. I haven't really looked back since.
What has changed?
Structure
Even with 5-6 systems previously (used to have 10+), trading can become quite stressful and you can really run yourself down on the busy days trying to capture all opportunities and avoid that feeling of 'missing' out on a great profitable game.
Whilst on holiday and since my return, I have used 2 systems. No more.
I have very strict criteria for trades I will enter. Anything else I have zero interest in at this moment in time. Call that discipline I guess. I am happy to branch out in the future as I have previously, but I need to develop my bread and butter trading and build my bank up to a decent standard.
Planning
Nothing too complex. I use Futbol24 app on my phone. Each morning I look at the entire days fixtures, knowing which will be in play on Betfair and which will have sufficient liquidity (100x Stake). I then 'favourite' teams playing in Leagues I have a good working knowledge of. This moves them into a separate section. I do the research I need on those I'm entering pre-match (20 mins effort) and then wait. If something happens during the matches that mean I'm no longer interested, I just unfave them and they're out of my mind forever.
Staking
I'm working at a rough 5% stake of bank, with a max 300% liability so more realistically 15% of bank. This will change now as I take more caution. Did not deviate from this at all and waited until the next £100 mark was met before moving on.
Mindset
As mentioned this is serious business to me. I am practically reliant on it to fulfil my short-mid term goals of getting engaged, married and quitting my job! Not too much eh! I told Pete earlier I will have to die before I fail to make it at this game. You won't find a more determined son of a bitch, believe me. I will not make mistakes lightly (although I have made some the last month of course, we all do).
Results?
This is not some sort of bullshit success story, I'm still an amateur in this game for sure, but I've seen a real turnaround this month, enough to give me real encouragement that I can achieve my goals. I am calm, clear minded, I know exactly what I need to do and how to do it. Only I alone can fuck this up over the long term.
Results in a dodgy download from Betfair. The yellow items highlighted are those I identified as clear mistakes I made which I hope to learn from and eradicate.
25th July - 20th August: £507.27
Blog Total: £376.83
I would say a long term aim would be 20-30 points a month, so really chuffed with the blog progress, now approx 1 month in. Will stop rambling now, been a long ass day. A quick thanks to Pete for keeping me on track!
| Market | Start time | Profit/loss (GBP) | Stake | % |
| Football / Norwich v Blackburn : Correct Score | 19-Aug-14 19:45 | £131.05 | £20 | 655% |
| Football / Norwich v Blackburn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 19-Aug-14 19:45 | -£9.60 | £20 | -48% |
| Football / Paide Linnameeskond v Nomme Kalju : Correct Score | 19-Aug-14 17:00 | £94.15 | £20 | 471% |
| Football / Breidablik v Fram : Correct Score | 18-Aug-14 20:15 | £48.25 | £20 | 241% |
| Football / St Patricks v Limerick : Correct Score | 18-Aug-14 19:45 | £0.00 | £20 | 0% |
| Football / Vikingur Reykjavik v IBV : Correct Score | 18-Aug-14 19:00 | £0.05 | £20 | 0% |
| Football / Kuban Krasnodar v Amkar : Correct Score | 18-Aug-14 18:00 | £0.00 | £20 | 0% |
| Football / Syrianska FC v Landskrona : Correct Score | 18-Aug-14 18:00 | -£60.05 | £20 | -300% |
| Football / Syrianska FC v Landskrona : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 18-Aug-14 18:00 | -£18.56 | £20 | -93% |
| Football / Bodo Glimt v Sandnes Ulf : Correct Score | 17-Aug-14 17:00 | £0.00 | £20 | 0% |
| Football / Sundsvall v Osters : Correct Score | 17-Aug-14 17:20 | -£17.79 | £20 | -89% |
| Football / Sundsvall v Osters : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 17-Aug-14 17:20 | £42.91 | £20 | 215% |
| Football / Utrecht v Willem II : Correct Score | 17-Aug-14 13:30 | £25.03 | £20 | 125% |
| Football / Sendai v Shimizu : Correct Score | 16-Aug-14 11:00 | £22.32 | £15 | 149% |
| Football / Sendai v Shimizu : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 16-Aug-14 11:00 | £16.13 | £15 | 108% |
| Football / AC Sparta Praha U19 v FK Pardubice U19 : Correct Score | 16-Aug-14 10:00 | £38.33 | £15 | 256% |
| Football / Start v Stromsgodset : Correct Score | 15-Aug-14 18:00 | £29.04 | £15 | 194% |
| Football / Start v Stromsgodset : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 15-Aug-14 18:00 | £42.84 | £15 | 286% |
| Football / Eastleigh v Aldershot : Correct Score | 14-Aug-14 19:45 | £0.00 | £15 | 0% |
| Football / FC Basel v St Gallen : Correct Score | 14-Aug-14 19:00 | -£46.08 | £15 | -307% |
| Football / Odd v Brann : Correct Score | 14-Aug-14 19:00 | £18.43 | £15 | 123% |
| Football / HB Koge v AGF : Correct Score | 14-Aug-14 18:00 | -£45.08 | £15 | -301% |
| Football / Kalmar FF v Falkenbergs : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 14-Aug-14 18:00 | -£7.65 | £15 | -51% |
| Football / Kalmar FF v Falkenbergs : Correct Score | 14-Aug-14 18:00 | £24.01 | £15 | 160% |
| Football / Kalmar FF v Falkenbergs : Correct Score 2 Home | 14-Aug-14 18:00 | -£1.50 | £15 | -10% |
| Football / AIK v Djurgardens : Correct Score | 13-Aug-14 18:05 | £7.53 | £15 | 50% |
| Football / Brommapojkarna v Gefle : Correct Score | 13-Aug-14 18:00 | £18.28 | £15 | 122% |
| Football / Brommapojkarna v Gefle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 13-Aug-14 18:00 | -£8.55 | £15 | -57% |
| Football / Rotherham v Fleetwood Town : Correct Score | 12-Aug-14 19:45 | -£52.75 | £15 | -352% |
| Football / Benfica v Rio Ave : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 20:45 | -£44.80 | £15 | -299% |
| Football / IBV v Hafnarfjordur : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 10-Aug-14 18:00 | -£12.60 | £15 | -84% |
| Football / IBV v Hafnarfjordur : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 18:00 | £6.66 | £15 | 44% |
| Football / Dnipro v Karpaty : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 17:30 | £17.23 | £15 | 115% |
| Football / Sogndal v Bodo Glimt : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 17:00 | £0.00 | £15 | 0% |
| Football / AIK v Gefle : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 16:30 | £55.82 | £15 | 372% |
| Football / AIK v Gefle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 10-Aug-14 16:30 | -£9.45 | £15 | -63% |
| Football / IFK Mariehamn v Honka : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 16:30 | £8.08 | £15 | 54% |
| Football / MFK Kosice v Slovan Bratislava : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 15:30 | £28.53 | £15 | 190% |
| Football / Sparta Rotterdam v Den Bosch : Correct Score | 10-Aug-14 13:30 | £0.00 | £15 | 0% |
| Football / Sligo Rovers v Athlone : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 19:45 | £42.79 | £15 | 285% |
| Football / Longford v Finn Harps : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 19:30 | -£44.64 | £15 | -298% |
| Football / SCR Altach v Wolfsberger AC : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 18:00 | £14.26 | £15 | 95% |
| Football / Atvidabergs v Kalmar FF : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 15:00 | £89.39 | £15 | 596% |
| Football / Atvidabergs v Kalmar FF : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 09-Aug-14 15:00 | -£6.75 | £15 | -45% |
| Football / Nottm Forest v Blackpool : Match Odds | 09-Aug-14 15:00 | £0.06 | £15 | 0% |
| Football / FC Inter v SJK : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 14:00 | £45.46 | £15 | 303% |
| Football / Cottbus v Rot-Weiss Erfurt : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 13:00 | -£44.00 | £15 | -293% |
| Football / Nagoya v Kashima : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 11:00 | £7.76 | £15 | 52% |
| Football / Nagoya v Kashima : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 09-Aug-14 11:00 | £15.66 | £15 | 104% |
| Football / FK Suduva v Trakai : Correct Score | 09-Aug-14 10:00 | -£43.45 | £15 | -290% |
| Football / Icasa v America MG : Correct Score | 08-Aug-14 23:30 | £12.79 | £15 | 85% |
| Football / KSV Superfund v SV Horn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 08-Aug-14 17:30 | -£10.80 | £15 | -72% |
| Football / KSV Superfund v SV Horn : Correct Score | 08-Aug-14 17:30 | -£46.50 | £15 | -310% |
| Football / Sirius v Degerfors : Correct Score | 08-Aug-14 17:20 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / AIK v FC Astana : Correct Score | 07-Aug-14 18:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Molde v Zorya : Correct Score | 07-Aug-14 17:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Palmeiras v Avai : Correct Score | 06-Aug-14 23:30 | £12.48 | £10 | 125% |
| Football / Thor v Fram : Correct Score | 06-Aug-14 19:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Sheriff Tiraspol v Slovan Bratislava : Correct Score | 06-Aug-14 18:00 | -£31.83 | £10 | -318% |
| Football / Atlantis v FC Viikkarit : Correct Score | 06-Aug-14 16:30 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / FK Jablonec U19 v Ceske Budejovice U19 : Correct Score | 06-Aug-14 13:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / FAC Team fur Wien v KSV Superfund : Correct Score | 05-Aug-14 17:30 | £6.18 | £10 | 62% |
| Football / FAC Team fur Wien v KSV Superfund : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 05-Aug-14 17:30 | -£5.70 | £10 | -57% |
| Football / FK Teplice U19 v FC Zlin U19 : Correct Score | 05-Aug-14 10:00 | £8.07 | £10 | 81% |
| Football / Celtic U20 v St Mirren U20 : Correct Score | 04-Aug-14 19:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / IFK Goteborg v AIK : Correct Score | 04-Aug-14 18:05 | £5.71 | £10 | 57% |
| Football / IFK Goteborg v AIK : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 04-Aug-14 18:05 | -£6.30 | £10 | -63% |
| Football / Mattersburg v St Polten : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 04-Aug-14 17:30 | -£3.85 | £10 | -39% |
| Football / Mattersburg v St Polten : Correct Score | 04-Aug-14 17:30 | £1.40 | £10 | 14% |
| Football / FK Mlada Boleslav U21 v Ceske Budejovice U21 : Correct Score | 04-Aug-14 14:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / 1. FK Pribram U21 v FK Jablonec U21 : Correct Score | 04-Aug-14 12:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Nurnberg v Erzgebirge : Correct Score | 03-Aug-14 14:30 | £7.56 | £10 | 76% |
| Football / Odd v Sandnes Ulf : Correct Score | 03-Aug-14 14:30 | £9.51 | £10 | 95% |
| Football / FC Zurich v Young Boys : Correct Score | 03-Aug-14 12:45 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Shonan v Jef Utd Chiba : Correct Score | 03-Aug-14 11:00 | £9.84 | £10 | 98% |
| Football / Yamagata v Oita : Correct Score | 03-Aug-14 10:00 | £5.76 | £10 | 58% |
| Football / Sparta Prague v Vysocina Jihlava : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 19:15 | £7.56 | £10 | 76% |
| Football / SV Ried v Red Bull Salzburg : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 18:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / FC Brno v Hradec Kralove : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 16:00 | £10.00 | £10 | 100% |
| Football / Norrkoping v Hacken : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 15:00 | -£34.20 | £10 | -342% |
| Football / Norrkoping v Hacken : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 02-Aug-14 15:00 | -£8.07 | £10 | -81% |
| Football / Tosu v Nagoya : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 11:00 | £5.01 | £10 | 50% |
| Football / FC Tokyo v Shimizu : Correct Score | 02-Aug-14 10:30 | £3.74 | £10 | 37% |
| Football / Sillamae Kalev v Tammeka Tartu : Correct Score | 01-Aug-14 17:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Warriors FC v Albirex Niigata : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 01-Aug-14 12:30 | £12.07 | £10 | 121% |
| Football / Warriors FC v Albirex Niigata : Correct Score | 01-Aug-14 12:30 | £1.26 | £10 | 13% |
| Football / Elfsborg v Hafnarfjordur : Correct Score | 31-Jul-14 17:00 | £17.44 | £10 | 174% |
| Football / Kalmar FF U21 v Mjallby U21 : Correct Score | 31-Jul-14 15:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Grindavik v BI Bolungarvik : Correct Score | 30-Jul-14 19:00 | £8.88 | £10 | 89% |
| Football / Iwata v Kamatamare Sanuki : Correct Score | 30-Jul-14 11:00 | £7.84 | £10 | 78% |
| Football / Slovan Bratislava v Sheriff Tiraspol : Correct Score | 29-Jul-14 19:15 | £55.63 | £10 | 556% |
| Football / Syrianska IF Kerburan v Norrtalje : Correct Score | 29-Jul-14 18:00 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Hammarby v Assyriska : Correct Score | 28-Jul-14 18:20 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Lokomotiv Sofia v Litex Lovech : Correct Score | 28-Jul-14 16:30 | £0.00 | £10 | 0% |
| Football / Colo Colo v Deportes Iquique : Correct Score | 27-Jul-14 23:00 | £13.85 | £10 | 139% |
| Football / Vancouver Whitecaps v Dallas : Correct Score | 27-Jul-14 22:00 | £0.46 | £10 | 5% |
| Football / Trencin v Podbrezova : Over/Under 4.5 Goals | 27-Jul-14 16:30 | -£5.40 | £10 | -54% |
| Football / Trencin v Podbrezova : Correct Score | 27-Jul-14 16:30 | £5.90 | £10 | 59% |
| Football / Honved v Dunaujvaros : Correct Score | 26-Jul-14 15:30 | £14.23 | £10 | 142% |
| £507.27 | 3440% |
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