Which stage is this?
Which stage is what, I hear you ask.
There is a gem of a post from what I assume is a trading/betfair forum from years ago whereby someone very articulately talks through various stages of the betfair traders journey. This includes stages such as unconscious incompetence, conscious incompetence and unconscious competence. It is a very amusing but also very accurate.
One of the latter stages discusses breaking even most days, knowing that you generally make good calls and win more than you lose. The last step being the one where you know you have an edge that works long term and you just trade on auto pilot.
He (she?) suggests it takes 3-5 years to reach this stage. I'm not arrogant enough (well, I am actually) to assume I'm there already, but things are looking very good.
Since my last post (Aug 26th - sorry for delay), I managed to claw back some of the in play losses that haunted me so badly around that Bank Holiday Monday.
In my 'August' total I am including the 1-2 weeks back end of July, as that was when I started the blog, but August really was when I had the first of many 'Eureka' moments.
Anyway August ended up 3327% (33.27 points), split 1748 (17.48) In Play and 1579% (15.79) Pre Match.
The Pre Match is 99% Correct Score markets, the 2.5 nonsense I began the blog with has long gone, such is the speed of my development.
August saw me choosing In Play and CS trades using historic stats and in play stats, and I met my target of 30 points, just. Considering this was my first month with a consistent couple of systems and applying the long awaited discipline, with sod all fixtures, I was delighted with that.
Literally from the 1st September though I have had somewhat of a brainwave. All my subsequent Pre Match trades have not used the website I'm subscribed to for stats for the season. I've not even had a peep.
I have literally discovered what I consider to be an incredible edge with regards to selecting matches to trade. Generally I will need 3-4 goals, spread over first and second half with both teams scoring. Sounds easy? Well try it and see how you get on!
This eureka moment spawned from a system I have also been paper trading since 27th August, which is currently up 42.0 points from 324 selections, at an assumed lay price of 3.0.
Such a return not only in a short space of time, 2-3 weeks, at a fairly high lay price, is literally incredible. I am very excited by its potential, not only because there are so many selections each day/weekend but because the strike rate so far is alarmingly high (over 70%), across literally any league across the world. Betfair also has the liquidity in the market I need to apply real money to this.
Watch this space, if the return for the whole of September is anything near 15.0 points, let alone 40+ I will be bouncing off the walls and applying for a £10k loan to play with £100 stakes...maybe.
September has started very well, tonight being no exception. Despite the lack of fixtures for a whole week due to the international break, September is currently up 1240% (12.4 points). I am still at £20 stakes. I won't play about with these until my bank reaches £1,500 ish.
I've seriously messed up my maths somewhere along the line, with regards to cumulative P&L. My points totals are accurate (from my spreadsheet of all my trades) but my betfair P&L is a lot higher.
I've done the BF one from when I started the blog, so we'll start again.
Blog Total: £474.60 / 4567% / 45.67 points
No comments:
Post a Comment